Stuck in the Soo

I'm still in Sault Ste Marie today. I had hoped to be able to get to Thunder Bay by starting early this morning. I prepared and reviewed my flight plan route last night, and talked to the FSS weather briefer about 1130pm.

I was a little uncertain, because the environment canada weather forecast was predicting 40-60% chance of rain with isolated thunderstorms. The aviation weather forecast was better, but showing a large low coming in from Manitoba that could arrive in the Thunder Bay area by the afternoon. Kenora and Dryden were reporting non-VFR conditions already. However, in discussion with the weather briefer, it appeared that the possibility of showers along my route were slim, and thunderstorm risk minimal. I could expect a mid-level VFR ceiling (6000-8000 feet), which was sufficient. It seemed if I could get to Thunder Bay by noon-ish, it would be safe.
So I made sure of my preparations and arranged for shuttle early out to the airport.

However, when I doubled-checked with FSS at 545am this morning, it appears that the weather system from Manitoba is moving faster than anticipated. The graphical forecast shows the low moving southeastward at 40 kts, with with showers ahead, patchy ceilings to 700 AGL, isolated cumulus giving visibility of 2 miles with thunderstorms. Thunder Bay would be in it somewhere between 8 am and 11am.

So, I canceled the shuttle, renewed my hotel reservation and went back to bed.

It's 11am now, and weather in Soo is still good and the weather in Thunder Bay is starting to go downhill rapidly (ceiling dropped from 25000 ft to 8000 ft in the last hour). I'm wondering if maybe I should have at least moved on 170NM to Marathon, at the northeast corner of Lake Superior and wait out the weather there, but the weather is moving rapidly and Marathon's airport is listed as unattended and some distance from town. Any way, it looks like tomorrow I should be able to dash beyond Thunder Bay after the weather passes over.